Panic grips nation’s stock markets
수업일 : 2011-08-09

 

Panic grips nation’s stock markets
Kospi tumbles as much as 7% in the aftermath of U.S. downgrade

두 눈을 의심할 만큼… "등골이 서늘해졌다"

August 09, 2011
 
  On the first day of trading since Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S.’ credit rating last week, stock markets in Korea, China and Japan (top to bottom) plunged yesterday. The Kospi tumbled 3.82 percent to close at 1,869.45. [REUTERS/YONHAP], [AP/YONHAP]
Panic permeated financial markets yesterday as Korean stocks were brought on a wild roller coaster ride that saw shares open close to even, dive over 7 percent by 1:30 p.m., before clawing back almost 4 percent of the losses by the end of the session. Other Asian markets also retreated, although none were nearly as volatile as Korea’s two major bourses.

The heavy sell-off reflects fears that global markets could be in store for a repeat of the September 2008 meltdown that befell markets after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

On the first day of trading here since S&P downgraded the United States’ credit rating, stocks opened with a mild drop of roughly 1 percent, supported by the net buying of institutional investors. But by 1:30, the market had surrendered as much as 7 percent, or more than 140 points.

Yesterday’s intraday drop was even steeper than the 6.1 percent retreat posted on Sept. 16, 2008, the day after Lehman Brothers announced its bankruptcy.

 
   
The Kospi closed at 1,869.45 after losing 74.30 points, or 3.82 percent, while the Kosdaq plunged 32.86 points or 6.63 percent to close at 462.69. This is the first time in seven months that the main Seoul bourse has fallen to the 1,800 level. The last time the Kospi closed under 1,900 was on Nov. 29 last year.

“I was completely shocked when I saw stocks tumbling uncontrollably around noon,” said a conglomerate employee in his mid-30s who wished only to be identified as Yoo. “I have seen market drops before, but seeing stocks plunge sent chills down my spine.”

It was worse over at the secondary market. At one point during the day, the Kosdaq lost more than 10 percent of its value with a 51 point drop.

A mechanism called a sidecar that halts all trade for five minutes when the market sees a drop of more than 5 percent for over a minute was activated on the primary market. A circuit breaker that stops all trade for 20 minutes when the market sees more than a 10 percent drop for over one minute was applied on the secondary market.

It was the first time a sidecar was activated on the Korean primary market since the terrorist attacks in New York on Sept. 11, 2001.

“We expected a measured drop in stock markets today but hadn’t expected the widespread panic of this magnitude,” said Lim Dong-min, an economist at KB Investment & Securities. “The U.S. economic condition will be crucial in shaping financial market conditions in the near future. As of now, we are still ruling out extreme scenarios such as a double-dip recession in the U.S. And supposing that the U.S. doesn’t fall back into recession. We predict the Kospi will go through adjustments before recapturing 1,900 points.”

Retail investors shaken

Retail investors were the biggest cause of yesterday’s market implosion. Retail investors are estimated to have dumped more than 730 billion won ($676 million) in stocks from the Kospi yesterday, almost 10 times more than foreign investors, who unloaded about 83 billion won.

The Kospi shed over 170 trillion won of market capitalization over the last five trading days as its stocks slipped 13.94 percent. The Kosdaq lost 15 percent over the same period, erasing 15.9 trillion won of market capitalization.

“The sudden mid-trading drop in the Kospi as well as the rout in other market indexes were reminiscent of markets immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, although the Kospi rebounded to close very close to our forecast of 1,870 points,” said Lee Sang-won, strategist at Hyundai Securities.”

“In order for markets to stabilize, there needs to be additional measures to provide financial relief to Italy and Spain. Until that happens, unstable factors will remain.”

Foreign markets movement

Markets in the Middle East and Asia saw significant stock retreats.

Most bourses in the Middle East, which were the first to open after the decision by S&P, retreated in fear of a double-dip global recession and the debt rating’s affect on the U.S. economy.

The Dubai index lost more than 3 percent, the sharpest drop since February. Stocks in Israel tumbled over 6 percent. The market in Saudi Arabia was the only market that defied the sell-off, nudging up 0.08 percent.

East Asian markets lost ground. Japan’s Nikkei market shed 202 points or 2.18 percent, while Taipei slipped more than 300 points, or 3.8 percent. Shanghai wasn’t spared, retreating more than 4 percent to its lowest level since July last year. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell over 3.5 percent and the Australian market lost more than 2.7 percent.

G-20 communique

Yesterday morning, finance ministers and central bank governors of
G-20 countries held a conference call to announce a communique pledging to remain in close contact, and cooperate to ensure financial stability and liquidity in financial markets.

“Though the meeting was held abruptly, many countries took part because we had thought it necessary to create confidence in the market by delivering a message that the leading nations are working together [to bring stability],” said Deputy Finance Minister Choi Jong-ku.

Evidently, it had little effect. Traders dismissed the communique as empty promises with no workable plan. “It would have been better if we came up with specific measures, but it was important for the G-20 countries to announce the communique first to calm investors down,” Choi said. “There will be announcements of specific measure among G-20 countries in the upcoming weeks.”

On concerns that the Korean economy could face another crisis on par with the global financial meltdown in 2008, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said that, “the Korean economy is much more stable than three years ago.”

The ministry yesterday said that Korea’s foreign reserves, current account balance and credit rating have all improved since 2008, making the country more resilient to external shocks.

Before the Lehman Brothers fallout, Korea’s foreign reserves amounted to $243.2 billion as of August 2008. The amount increased 27.9 percent to $311 billion as of July this year. Also, from January to August 2008, the country’s current account deficit was $3.1 billion, but in 2009 and 2010, the balance turned into a surplus of $32.8 billion and $28.2 billion, respectively.

What’s ahead?

Some analysts speculate that the market will stabilize in coming weeks after suffering short-term volatility.

However, others say the bear market could last much longer.

“The investment sentiment will get dramatically worse even though the frequently-mentioned possibility of downgrading the U.S. credit rating has been realized,” said IBK Securities analyst Park Ok-hee.

“Although the stock market in Japan remained almost unchanged the day S&P lowered its rating one notch to AA+ on Feb. 22, 2001 - it had remained AAA since 1975 - the market rose slightly the day after falling 7.4 percent,” Park added.

“The Korean stock market, which was amidst a bearish rally due to a stagnant U.S. economy at the time, dropped 1.87 percent the day Japan’s rating fell,”

Park added that the possibility the Korean market will see additional drops is open.


By Lee Ho-jeong, Lee Eun-joo [ojlee82@joongang.co.kr]


한글 관련 기사 [중앙일보]

시장 ‘패닉’… 2008 vs 2011 닮은 점 다른 점

요즘의 세계 증시 급락을 두고 2008년 ‘리먼 브러더스의 악몽’을 떠올리는 이들이 많다. 미국 월가에서는 “2008년의 전면적인 재현”이라는 말이 나올 정도다.

뭐가 그리 닮았을까. 잠시 3년 전을 돌아보자. 당시는 서브프라임 모기지 사태로 리먼 브러더스가 파산하자 투자자들이 공포로 주식을 던졌다. 전 세계 금융거래에서 리먼이 판 파생상품 비중은 크지 않았지만 연쇄반응이 일어나면서 국제금융시장이 초토화됐다. 앞을 내다보기 어렵다는 게 큰 이유였다. 덩달아 실물경제까지 위축되는 최악의 시나리오가 전개됐다. 당시 우리 증시도 코스피 지수가 하루에만 126포인트나 빠지고, 달러 대비 원화가치가 133원이나 떨어지는 등 후폭풍이 거셌다.

요즘은 어떨까. 3년 전과 가장 닮은 건 두려움이다. 미국의 신용등급 강등이란 전대미문의 사건 때문이다. 도무지 방향을 알 수 없다는 점에서 리먼 사태 때와 꼭 닮았다. 여기에 미국의 더블딥 우려, 유럽의 재정위기 등이 그림자를 드리우고 있다는 것도 당시와 비슷하다.

대응책이 돈을 푸는 ‘양적 완화’ 말고는 없다는 점도 같다. 주요국의 기준 금리가 제로금리로 떨어진 데다 유동성이 그간 많이 풀린 점을 감안하면 비슷하긴 해도 되레 현재가 더 심각하다는 얘기도 나온다. 연세대 경제학과 김정식 교수는 “미국 경제의 문제가 끝이 아니라 시작이라는 인식이 확산되고 있다는 게 부담”이라면서 “우리 경제의 특성상 당분간 금융시장이 불안한 흐름을 보일 것”이라고 예상했다.

다른 점도 많다. 상대적으로 비관론이 적다. 긍정론도 만만찮다. 주요 증권사 리서치센터장들은 “신용등급 하락은 80% 정도 주가에 반영됐다”(현대증권 오성진 센터장), “단기 주가조정에 그칠 것”(SK 이동섭 센터장) 등 비관론에서 거리를 두고 있다. “오히려 (미국 신용등급 강등이) 불확실성 해소 측면에서 선명해진 부분이 있다”(신영증권 김세중 투자전략팀장)는 긍정적 반응까지 나온다.

또 있다. 우리의 경제여건이 3년 전보다 튼튼해졌다. 8일 기획재정부에 따르면 수출 증가세(7월 27.3%)는 높게 지속되고, 광공업생산 등 생산증가세도 이어지는 등 경기 상승 흐름을 유지하고 있다.

또 신흥국에 대한 수출이 70% 이상으로 수출 시장도 다변화됐다. 외환보유액은 2008년 8월 말 2432억 달러에서 지난 7월 말 3110억 달러로 27.9% 늘었다. 총외채 대비 단기외채 비중도 51.9%에서 38.4%로 개선됐다.

기획재정부 최종구 차관보는 “시장 상황이 2008년 때와는 현상 면에서 차이가 있으며 우리 경제 지표도 당시보다 훨씬 안정적”이라며 “무엇보다 97년, 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 극복 과정에서 정부와 민간의 리스크 관리 및 위기대응 능력이 그 어느 때보다 향상됐다”고 강조했다.

실제 이런 분위기는 외국인의 움직임에서도 나타난다. 이날 외국인은 증시에서 771억원 정도를 팔았다. 6100억원에 달하던 2008년 리먼 사태 직후 때의 13% 수준이다. 채권시장에서는 연일 ‘사자’에 나서고 있다. 달러 대비 원화가치가 15원 하락했지만 2008년(9월 16일 51원 하락)에 비하면 약과다. 삼성경제연구소 권순우 거시경제실장은 “지금은 모든 면에서 여건이 훨씬 낫다”고 강조했다.

지금 중요한 건 투자자들의 심리다. 이날 한국 증시의 낙폭이 컸던 것도 심리적인 동요에 따른 개인들의 투매에 따른 것이었다. 이날 개인은 7331억원어치를 팔았다.

고려대 경제학과 오동근 교수는 “금융시장의 불안이 장기화하지 않도록 투자 심리를 안정시키는 것이 정부가 할 일”이라고 말했다.

◆리먼브러더스 사태=2008년 9월 15일 서브프라임 모기지(비우량 주택담보대출)에 투자했다가 큰 손실을 본 미국 투자은행 리먼브러더스가 파산하자 세계 증시가 일제히 폭락했다. 부실을 처리하느라 미국·유럽·아시아 각국 정부가 수조 달러의 돈을 풀어야 했다. 1929년 대공황 이후 최대 금융위기로 꼽힌다.