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| The dealing room at the Korea Exchange Bank’s headquarters in Myeong-dong, central Seoul, is busy as the Kospi continues to fall for the third consecutive trading day, closing at this year’s lowest at 1,652.71 after loosing 44.73 points yesterday. The won depreciated to nearly 1,200 won against the U.S. greenback. [NEWSIS] |
As panic continued to dominate the local markets yesterday, the won moved to just 5 won shy of the 1,200 won-to-the-dollar level, depreciating to its lowest value in 13 months.
The stock market fell for the third consecutive trading day and the Kospi reached its lowest point of the year.
And as the market failed to turn around, the government went into a state of emergency.
Although the won strengthened against the greenback Friday as the government intervened to shore it up, the currency closed yesterday at 1,195.80 won after losing nearly 30 won.
The fall was fueled by disappointment that the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s annual meeting last weekend failed to produce specific measures to counter the growing fears of another global recession.
The government didn’t intervene in the currency market yesterday. Some analysts said government intervention may be limited because it doesn’t want to spend more foreign currency reserves.
The last time the won was near 1,200 was in Aug. 31, 2010, when the market closed at 1,198.10 won.
“As fears that the debt crisis in Europe could lead to a global credit crunch continue, a sense of crisis in the Korean economy and financial markets is rising,” said Hong Soon-pyo, an analyst at Daishin Securities. “Since the beginning of August, the Korean currency market has been incorporating the risk of a Europe-led credit crunch more than in any other currency market.”
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“Government intervention can modulate the speed of the depreciation but as the fiscal crisis in Europe may be extensive, it would be difficult for the government to stop the momentum,” Hong said.
The won started off at 1,126.50 won against the U.S. dollar at the beginning of this year. Most economic institutes predicted that the won would remain around the 1,100 won level by the end of this year.
Around the beginning of the summer, however, the won started to strengthen rapidly and hit the 1,050 level on July 27. There were concerns that major exporters may suffer from the strengthening currency. The government, however, allowed the won to appreciate to ease inflationary pressures.
The situation reversed itself after Standard and Poor’s lowered the U.S. credit rating for the first time in history. On top of the debt crisis in Europe, the U.S. downgrade sparked fears of a recession similar to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The won started to weaken as foreign investors started to offload Korean stocks.
The local stock markets continued to retreat to reach this year’s lowest level. The benchmark Kospi lost 2.64 percent, or 44.73 points, to close at 1,652.71. The junior Kosdaq saw a steeper decline, losing 8.28 percent, or 36.96 points, to close at 409.55, the lowest since March 2009.
Widening credit crunch fears
There are also signals that Korea, along with other Asian nations, could face a dollar crunch as investors worldwide soak up dollars.
“Asian currencies, which had been appreciating against the dollar this year, began weakening in September,” said Chung Mi-young of Samsung Futures. “Foreign investors are shrinking their Asian currency positions while increasing their dollar positions.”
The interest rates for won-dollar currency swaps maturing between one to five years have fallen below 1 percent as of last week.
The rapid drop of this rate, which is the interest rate at which domestic banks lend won in exchange for borrowing dollars, means that it’s becoming difficult to secure dollars on the market.
Meanwhile, the cost of securing dollars is going up. The spread on Korean government-issued foreign exchange stabilization bonds, which reflect the cost Korean banks and companies must bear when issuing foreign currency bonds, has been rising nonstop to break the 200 basis point mark, reaching 217 basis points last Thursday.
Local commercial banks said that although they are currently securing dollars at comparatively low costs from long-time partners, there is no telling how the situation might change the longer the financial turmoil drags on.
“The foreign currency market is in a tight situation,” said one long-term foreign currency debt expert of a major domestic commercial bank. “Unless you are in an established relationship with the bank you’re trying to borrow dollars from, the spread for short-term foreign currency debt in the money market has jumped considerably since the market turmoil began.”
“In the case of foreign currency bonds, the situation is even worse,” the expert added. “Commercial banks secured dollars by issuing foreign currency bonds at a spread of 200 basis points earlier this year, but now the spread has jumped to the 300 basis point range.”
The government is reportedly coaching corporations to raise funds in other internationally accepted currencies such as the yen or the Swiss franc if they have trouble securing dollars. It is also telling commercial banks to refrain from making short-term dollar loans to foreign banks and shore up their own supply.
State-run banks, which are lenders that local commercial banks and corporations turn to when they cannot secure enough foreign currency, are also beefing up their foreign currency holdings over their original yearly targets in preparation for any unforeseen events.
“We originally planned to secure about $8.8 billion this year to cater to needs of businesses with overseas trade and other domestic institutions,” said Lee Jin-kyun, head of the DCM and strategy team at Korea Eximbank. “We have secured nearly 90 percent of that amount already, and we’re seeking to secure more than our original goal.”
Korea has $312.2 billion in foreign currency reserves as of August - the seventh-largest reserves in the world and about 2.1 times the size of Korea’s short-term foreign currency debt as of June.
Government officials say that this is more than enough to outlast any crisis: even if all short-term debt is paid, Korea will have $150 billion in reserves. When Korea faced a foreign currency shortage in 2008, its reserves were only 1.5 times its foreign currency short-term debt.
However, critics say that considering the economy’s large exposure to foreign investment, the reserves should be able to cover all $894.9 billion in foreign capital currently invested in Korea - including stock investments and direct investments such as factories - and not just foreign currency bonds and other investments such as loans to banks.
The Blue House has decided to hold weekly meetings to assess the situation at the order of President Lee Myung-bak, presidential spokesman Park Jeong-ha said. Starting next week, a previously twice-monthly meeting will be held every week. From January 2009, Lee hosted weekly emergency meetings on the economic crisis, which were changed to twice a month last September.
By Lee Ho-jeong, Lee Jung-yoon [ojlee82@joongang.co.kr]
한글 관련 기사 [뉴시스]
[초점]유럽發 공포…주식·채권·원화 `트리플 약세`
그리스의 채무 불이행(디폴트) 우려감과 함께 유로존 위기가 또다시 국내 금융시장을 수렁 속으로 몰아넣었다.
26일 국내 금융시장은 주가와 원화가치, 채권값이 모두 하락하는 `트리플 약세` 현상이 나타났다. 코스피지수와 코스닥지수는 올해 들어 가장 낮은 수준으로 떨어졌고, 원·달러 환율 역시 1200원에 육박했다. 채권값도 환율에 발목이 잡히면서 약세로 전환됐다.
이날 코스피지수는 전날보다 44.73포인트(2.64%) 하락한 1652.71에 장을 마쳤다. 코스닥지수 역시 전날보다 36.96포인트(8.28%) 내린 409.55에 마감했다. 코스피와 코스닥지수는 올해 들어 가장 낮은 수준으로 떨어졌다.
특히 서울 외환시장에서 원·달러 환율은 전날보다 29.8원(2.56%) 오른 1195.8원에 마감했다. 13개월래 최고치를 기록한 것으로 1200원을 코앞에 두고 있다.
채권시장에서 국고채 금리는 급등했다. 이는 채권가격이 하락했다는 뜻이다. 금융투자협회에 따르면 3년 만기 국고채 금리는 전날보다 0.06% 오른 3.51%에 마감했다. 5년 만기 국고채는 0.05% 오른 3.61%에 장을 마감했다.
곽중보 삼성증권 연구원은 "주말에 해외 증시는 강세를 보였지만 국제통화기금(IMF)이나 세계은행 등이 유럽 금융시장을 안정시킬 만한 정책 공조책을 내놓지 못하면서 시장의 실망감이 반영됐다"며 "국내에서는 달러 상승세가 지속되면서 한국시장에 대한 매력도가 떨어지고 있다는 우려도 나오고 있다"고 말했다.
특히 그는 "개인들의 패닉성 매도, 손절매성 매도세가 저가매수와 맞물리면서 낙폭이 커졌다"고 분석했다. 실제 최근 이틀간 주가가 150포인트 넘게 하락할 때도 1조6000억원 가까지 주식을 주워담았던 개인은 이날 4000억원 넘게 순매도했다.
이재만 동양종합금융증권 연구원은 "특별하게 악재가 부각됐다기 보다는 유럽이 재정위기 뿐만 아니라 금융위기까지 확산되면서 우려가 사라지지 않고 있다"며 "유럽발 악재가 완화되지 않는 이상은 현재 수준에서는 약보합세를 유지할 가능성이 있다"고 내다봤다.
오는 27일(현지시각)에는 그리스와 독일 총리회담이 예정돼 있고, 10월 초까지 핀란드와 독일, 오스트리아, 네덜란드 등이 유럽재정안정기금(ESEF)에 대한 증액안을 표결할 예정이다.
류용석 현대증권 투자전략팀장은 "유럽 각국이 공조를 이행할 때가 바닥"이라며 "29일 독일 의회에서 유럽재정안정기금 증액안이라도 통과시키면 시장은 안정될 것으로 보인다"고 말했다.
한편 아시아 증시도 모두 하락세를 보이고 있다. 일본 니케이225지수는 2.17%, 대만 TWI지수는 2.40% 하락 마감했다. 홍콩 항셍지수는 -1.48%, 중국 상하이종합지수는 -1.64%로 약세를 보였다. 오후 5시10분 현재 싱가폴STI지수 역시 전날보다 1.74% 하락한 채 거래 중이다.